In terms of their individual forecasts for where the fed funds rate will go:
Median forecast for end-2023 is 5.6% (this didn’t change)
That implies another +25 bps rate hike before year end
And for end-2024, their median forecast is 5.1% — (was 4.6% previously)
That means that they’re now looking for 2 rate cuts in 2024 (vs. 4 previously). The implication is that rate cuts will come later, if at all, in 2024.
If you add this all together, it looks like the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates. Inflation is moving in the right direction, albeit slowly, and there are no obvious signs of trouble in the job market or economy as a whole. Unfortunately for homebuyers (and real estate professionals) a ‘soft landing’ isn’t going to help mortgage rates.
Read the full report by Scott Bixen: https://medium.com/listreports/weekend-talking-points-nothing-and-everything-9bc0e35e1c2e
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